The Ayatollas, Iran and the Bomb

One incontrovertible lesson the world learned by President GW Bush's invasion of Iraq is that your nation better have nuclear weapons or buckle to US mandates. Saddam had none... His offspring are dead. His power gone. And he will be hanged unless he crushes a cyanide capsule between his molars.

Bush's foolish invasion of Iraq has insured that the Iranian Ayatollas will have the BOMB, or alternatively, go down fighting desperately attempting to acquire it. Unlike the Libyans who agreed to give up their nuclear programs under US pressure, the Iranians fervently believe the BOMB will set them free.

Gone are any hopes of a nice, neat surgical US or Israeli surprise air strike with bunker busting bombs that will destroy Iranian nuclear bomb making capabilities and command and control centers There is no expectation that after such a strike the Iranians would return blissfully to weaving spectacular oriental rugs and enriching themselves, quietly pumping oil for engines in Europe and Asia.

First, there are serious doubts the US targeting intelligence is up to finding all the Iranian nuclear producing facilities. If found, there remains a question whether they can be destroyed. On this one, Bush has to skip his addiction to faith based intelligence or accepting that twisted crap from Mossad that projects mostly Israeli interests. He has to get it right the first time, because the gloves will be off as the Iranians launch suicidal counterstrikes--these may come in the form of WMD the air strikes missed. There will be regional economic blows and military actions by Iranian general purpose forces--Probability of terrorist alerts inside the US will be raised as the hysterical Ayatollas would go for broke and lift all constraints. On top of this, world wide Islamic reaction would be violent-look what happened when it took exception to a Danish cartoon!

There are cogent reasons the Iranians are paranoid about US military intervention in their country. Apart from the lesson of deposed Saddam facing the gallows, the US has military forces on the Iranian borders in Afghanistan and Iraq. Additionally, it has based naval and air forces in the old Trucial states on the Persian Gulf, where it also fields CENTCOM, a forward, air conditioned US joint forces battle command--the high command for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. And let us not forget Bush raised the temperature of the Iranians by branding Iran as an Axis of Evil.

Contrast Ronald Reagan's cake baking gambits during the Iran Contra Affair to the House of Bush's two wars in Iraq, and you clearly understand recent failures of US diplomacy.in the Persian Gulf .

Assumption is Iranian retaliation will be strategic and tactical. Strategically, Israel will be hit by Iranian missiles. Most likely many of these will have WMD warheads. If the Iraqis could strike Israelis with low speed, obsolescent SCUD missiles during Gulf War I, the Iranians will succeed in the launch of some of their modern long range missiles, Oil production in Iran will be stopped, maybe internally sabotaged by the Ayatollas. The Straits of Hormuz most likely will be blockaded at least temporarily, interrupting oil transport from other Gulf states. Meanwhile, the US would raise its terror alert and watch its stock market tumble as America anticipates a retaliatory blow to its heartland. Price of oil would skyrocket. Tactically, the US troops in Iraq would be turned into staked goats... Powerful Iraqi Shiite militia leader el Sadr vowed he would fight if Americans attacked Iran, and he would be massively augmented by fanatic fighters from Iran. Ambassador Bremer recently explained the vulnerabilities of US supply lines in Iraq, so there is no question el Sadr could cause serious problems for US operations in Iraq. Basra oil production and distribution would be halted.

US military intervention, therefore, would be madness. The ayatollas will have the BOMB. The diplomatic kabuki at the UN buys more time for the Iranians to produce the nuclear materials. Iranians have been working on the BOMB since 1980, when Abdul Qadar Khan from Pakistan provided them technical knowledge. You can assume North Korea and perhaps China have aided the Iranians as well. The Iranians have long range missile delivery systems as of a few years ago-- weapon warhead testing can be bench tested on computer models, or deep underground or in another country.

A nuclear free zone in the Middle East is absurd as long as Israel has the BOMB. Mutual Assured Doctrine will be fashionable again. North Korea, Pakistan, Israel and India now own the BOMB, and it has not been employed. No one except the US has pulled the nuclear trigger. The concept of a nuclear weapon free world is admirable, but just utopian. As far as US Intelligence community, they estimate that it will take years for the Iranians to have the BOMB, ignore it . These guys have not been right since GW Bush has been president. The Iranian BOMB is imminent.

For the foolishly aggressive neocons to be right when they said the military intervention in Iraq would be a "cakewalk", they have to add "when compared to the invasion of Iran". Colonel Robert E Bartos USA Ret