More War Less Talk – Iran

You cannot call it war mongering, because that is a nasty Marxist epithet used against the US by the Communists, discarded with the end of the Cold War. What you call GW Bush's threat of WWIII if Iran acquires knowledge of a nuclear weapon is up to you, but I call it just stupid. Look, if the North Koreans, Israelis, Indians and the Pakistanis can build nuclear WMDs, whether the Persians have the knowledge is not the burning issue. The issue is do they have the bomb or are they moving toward its acquisition? Is Bush's and his Israeli pal's intelligence is so thin on the subject that Bush is stuck with dancing with the amorphous word knowledge. Most PhDs in nuclear physics have the knowledge to build a nuc.

After all, Bush said Saddam had WMD and he proved to be dead wrong. To make matters worse this time around, Russia's Putin officially disagrees loudly with Bush's conclusions on Iran's hot pursuit of the bomb. So maybe Bush will practice caution this time. Nobody believes Israeli intelligence except Bush and the neocons.

Second part of Bush's statement on WWIII was that an Iranian nuclear weapon was a direct threat to Israel and that was why the US will prevent its acquisition even if it started WWIII. Bush has to be careful of linking the Jewish state as the basis to starting war or he will begin to sound like the much pilloried and drunken film star, Mel Gibson, who blamed the Jews for starting wars. My sense is that Israeli has nuclear weapons and has the best airforce in the Middle East, so it should take care of itself if it foolishly chooses to risk war. Israeli targets in Iran may be out of range, but that problem is solved with one way missions. Desperate situations call for desperate measures. As far as living with a nuclear Iran, there is always a Mutual Assured Destruction Doctrine that worked well in the Cold War. Was interesting to note that retired US General Abizaid, former commander of CENTCOM, recently declared that the US should do its best to persuade Iran to not acquire nuclear weapons, but if not successful, the US could live with them.

One thing obvious at this stage is the US military is not keen on war with Iran. It followed moronic cake walk pro Israeli neocons into war on Iraq. Let's hope it concluded that the Administration, with its imbedded neocons, do not know what they are doing in terms war and US interests. Israelis want US troops in the region to come to their rescue if necessary at any American cost. What the US does not need is deeper involvement with Israeli security pushed frantically by the neocons and Israeli lobby. A US attack on Iran is at the top of their agenda. Just watch Senator Leiberman jump when told by Israel to do so. His last leap through the Israeli hoop was leading the US Senate to brand the Iranian Guards as terrorists that provided political ground work for the invasion of Iran.

War with Iran would bring on oil at well over a 100USD a barrel with a major ruinous impact on the US and world economy. War with Iran was put something like this by the Iranians: The US has encircled itself with Iran; pre targeted rocket and missiles will rain on nearby US military forces and installation in the region to include Israel. Iranians indicated a 2 minute response to attacks, so it effectively is a launch on warning scenario.

This is most likely a puffed up over estimation of Iran's counter attack capabilities. Reminded me of a the time I asked a Yugoslav general how he expected to stop five Soviet tank divisions from pouring into Yugoslavia across the Danubian plains from Hungry into Yugoslavia. He replied that the Yugoslavs have 15 anti-tank weapons for every Soviet tank! So like the Yugoslavs, the Iranians will go with what they got if they are attacked; it will not reek devastation on US forces, but will inflict serious losses to US troops, to include US capital ships – remember the Shiite Iranians have a suicide ethos that enabled them to fight the better equipped Saddam forces to a standstill, despite Saddam's ruthless use of chemical warfare against them. They are a strong ethnocentric nationality, a religious group with firm ties to a glorious past. AND, there are about 70 million of them.

Unlike the pre-attack on Iraq, Russia has interjected itself dramatically into the scene. A Moscow/Tehran axis has developed with leadership exchanges, and Russian hand-holding of the Persians on nuclear developments. Russia recently sent Condoleezza and SECDEF Gates from Moscow with a stern lecture on US planned bases in East Europe. Russia also threatened to abrogate the Intermediate Missile Treaty in Europe. It also has reactivated the long range recon Bear bombers to keep tabs on the US fleet. You have to assume their submarine patrols also have increased. Any attack on Iran by the US has to factor in Russian mischief.

After GW Bush's recent press conference where he toyed with WWIII, some main line media types believed GW Bush had just ad libbed the lines, improvised, i.e., no talking points. This was supported by the way the president squirmed, with a goofy smirk on his face when he delivered the words. That conjecture was soon dashed when VEEP Cheney, a few days later, went after Iran warning the Persians that dire measures by the international community will be taken if the Iranians continue on their present course. Am uncertain who is this international coalition; it is not the UN for certain. As far as NATO, it has not even fulfilled its commitments to Afghanistan as promised; SECDEF Gates protested about this last week. Cheney has eager, sometimes loyal Israel, but its premier Olmert may be in jail for corruption before it is time to strike. By this time the Englishmen are tired of being GWB's lap dog. The Poles have just changed government and the new gang has put a much higher price on its military cooperation with the US. The Europeans get the bulk of their oil from Iran – oil will not be pumped or transported during a war. So Cheney's multi national bandwagon for war on Iran is very light – might even say delusional.

There is cheering in the neocon offices at the American Enterprise Institute and the Weekly Standard that ardently and successfully promoted the foolish invasion of Iraq. For Iran it goes, WE DID IT BEFORE AND WE CAN DO IT AGAIN. The war drums are beating. The incompetent morons who brought you Fiasco I are prepared to unveil Fiasco II. Colonel Robert E Bartos USA RET
*Photograph: Persian Qjar Tile of Lady