Thursday, December 13, 2007

Bush in his Temple of Doom – Iran NIE

GW Bush's administration is crashing. It is not the final days of the Third Reich. No one is crunching cyanide capsules in their molars, burning bodies in the Rose Garden and shooting their dogs. So far no Russian Mongol troops running around Washington, DC raping and looting wrist watches, but certainly you can hear the cracking of the Bush political edifice as it prepares to tumble down.

Based on the President's recent performances at White House press conference when he took questions on the findings of the Iran National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and afterwards, when he publicly provided the wrong telephone number for his new mortgage hotline,. you have to wonder whether he is buckling under the strain of his office. A "Chicago Tribune" reporter at the press conference even asked him, based on his body language, whether he was distressed. The president apparently was so upset by the question that he ended the press conference in a huff with a "What, me worry?" type reply – he left the briefing, "taking his marbles home."

The Iran NIE was a watershed document. Up to this point, when GW Bush made policy the US Intelligence Community disgustingly produced the Intelligence to support it. There was one major exception - the "Yellow Cake" fiasco, when the Intelligence community finally refused to back Bush's contention that Saddam was seeking and buying uranium ore from Niger to build the BOMB. In this case, Bush openly reverted cynically to using British Intelligence to make his case for war with Iraq in his state of the union address. This concocted ploy blew up in his face, ending with Scooter Libby's crushing felony conviction for obstructing justice.

Bush figured that if bureaucratic intimidation, the corrupt intelligence mythology combined with propaganda worked for the invasion of Iraq, so why not pull another variation to bomb Iran. Congress, dominated by the Israeli Lobby that promotes bombing Iran, passed a Senate resolution condemning the Iranian guards as a terrorist organization. It was sponsored by Republican Senator Kyl and Lieberman, the Israeli Nuncio to the US Senate. Presidential candidate New York Senator Clinton voted for it, as pro Israeli NYC required her to do. Previously, US Navy deployed major carrier strike forces to the Persian Gulf area. Neocons were pushing for an attack at State, Defense and NSC. At the State Department the neocons were forming under Clueless Condeleezza to work to push the attack policy into interagency process – former neocon pistoleros were assembled there in a group. Wolfowitz, who was a stupendous failure in his past jobs at Defense and the World Bank, recently joined the team. Robert Joseph, who was in the middle of Yellow Cake disinformation, and Woolsey, former CIA Director, who fronted for the Neocons on TV during the run up to the Iraq war also joined. I call the the trio, THE THREE BLIND MICE.

At the same time Seymour Hersh, who broke the My Lai Massacre story and the Abu Gharb torture scandal, was writing furiously in the NEW YORKER and broadcasting at the top of his lungs on TV appearances that the Pentagon is preparing to bomb Iraq. This was partially fueled by the Pentagon as it blamed nearly every Iraq disaster on Iranian direction and weapons. US projection of massive naval forces to the Gulf also supported Hersh's reporting...

The Iran NIE derailed the march to a third GW Bush war, at least temporarily. It indicated that the Iranians stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003. You can imagine the White House pressure to avoid this conclusion. It took over two years to produce the estimate. For a period the White House tried to stop the publication of the unclassified version of the NIE, but reversed its position figuring the information would leak and cause it even more problems.

What made the Intelligence Community finally publish an NIE based on evidence ? I do not know for certain, but here is my speculation: (1) the key CIA staffer responsible for pulling the Iran estimate together was the same person who earlier was on the State Department's Intelligence and Research (INR) staff, was the only member of the Intelligence Community to drive a dissent footnote into the flawed Iraq estimate used by Bush to justify his invasion of Iraq. (2) the three military service intelligence organizations realized much to their dismay the terrible cost of playing follow the leader instead of following the evidence to develop an estimate. Cost was to their integrity as well the damage to military strategic planning; (3 the intelligence data that led to the conclusion that the Iranians were not pursuing nuclear weapons was conclusive. Consequence of failing to accept it would be worse than to face the White House wrath; (4) Military leadership at the Pentagon, i.e. CENTCOM and OJCS, are now naval officers who see the damage of what rolling over to corrupt political leadership by pandering Air Force and Army brass has brought to the US military services; (5) the Neocon disinformation unit at the Pentagon has been disbanded.

Contrary to attacks on the intelligence that led to the NIE conclusions, the findings were based on solid, multi source confirmation to include national technical means. Three Republican senators already have called for an investigation of the NIE. The Neocons are apoplectic – Neocon Podhoretz, 9/11 Rudy's national security advisor, said there was a conspiracy in the development of the estimate. The neocon mouthpiece publication, THE WEEKLY STANDARD, is trying to prove the old discredited NIE on IRAQ was more credible than the new NIE on Iran. They may have to call on a Talmudic scholar to perform this mental wizardry. Even the pro Israeli Harvard blowhard Alan Dershowitz condemns the estimate, so you know the NIE is on the mark. Maybe all this criticism with its unity of effort stems from the fact that Israel has announced it remains convinced Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons--so what? In the main, their intelligence now stinks. Where are the three POWs taken by the Arabs and Hezbollah? Why did the Israelis push for elections that their enemy Hamas wo? Misguided recent bombing of Lebanon and its invasion was a disaster for Israel, all of which was based on which their flawed intelligence.

The Israeli tail is apparently trying to wag the American dog. The neocons certainly pulled this off for the invasion of Iraq, so what is new? Since the THREE BLIND MICE are again in business, can we expect super swindler Ahmed Chalabi to return? Will CURVE BALL, the corrupt source for every occasion, be the the basis for a Team B to challenge the new Iran estimate? After the foolish bombing of Lebanon, bet if you asked even an Israeli man on the street whether he trusted American intelligence or Israeli intelligence more, the truthful answer by the majority would be AMERICAN – we tried that Israeli/neocon specious intelligence on Iraq invasion – REMEMBER THE CAKE WALK?

GW Bush's juvenile performance at the White House press conference indicated the new NIE did not make an impact personally on his policy toward Iran. It was clear our president prefers faith-based intelligence or that provided by the neocons and Israeli intelligence. Mr. President, what about intelligence from the Watusi tribe?

Bush's regime is doomed. It is collapsing under massive debt, failing military campaigns, corruption, open borders, out-sourcing jobs and obstruction of justice. As this unfolds, chances for desperate screwball actions are enhanced. I put bombing Iran in this category. Madmen always have a deranged excuse for killing... Murdering Rabin by an Israeli assassin is justified by religious fanatics for the greater good of Israel. Jihadists defend killing innocent people by believing Allah will reward the innocent in heaven and compensate them for any errors made by the holy Jihad on earth. Or how about bombing evil, evil Iran? It is righteous, because that is what the Bible teaches us– on to Armageddon and the Rapture. Colonel Robert E Bartos USA Ret


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good write up. I had hoped Bush would distance himself from the NEOCONs since the occupation is going badly. I hope the Navy can fight off the attempts by the NEOCONs to attack Iran.

Anonymous Anonymous said...

And what do you think of Obadiah Shoher's arguments against the peace process ( )?

Blogger The Author said...

try to refrain from spamming my blog

Blogger Bob said...

Sure hope you are wrong about Bush using his whacky religious gut feelings to attack Iran, but He most likely will.

It will be a sad day for America when he does.


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