Thursday, February 24, 2011

PERMANENT REVOLUTION 2011---Whether the wave of political upheaval in the Middle East is just a case old aging dictators losing their grip or frenzied mob's pent up anger over chronic misrule . exploitation and corruption is the question. One thing for certain there is no single sponsorship by any nation or group overarching all events in different countries; however, the final outcome is yet to be determined.

Bad old Russians are enmeshed in in Chechnya; Chinese Communists, concentrating on Tibet And Taiwan, focus mainly on trade or on buying resources with cheap dollars; Iran has it own bloody domestic opposition; and the USA's CIA could not find its ass much beyond running ineffective drone attacks-its days of wine and roses of forcing regime change are gone; the Israeli seem content stealing Palestine land and killing non-combatant on their borders.

Up until to now the Jewish state has depended on the US to solve most its foreign policy issues.
Pax Americana appears over as this US foreign policy tanks in the Middle East and Asia.

To date America has not found a substitute for playing at the world's policeman; so it bites its nails helplessly as revolutionary events in Arab states unfold beyond its control.

Permanent revolution as a concept usually fizzles as revolutionary regimes become status quo--it failed for Castro Cuba and certainly in the Russian Revolution as its chief advocate, Leon Trotsky was killed by Stalin in Mexico with an ice ax in his head by Soviet secret service. About the only Trotsky legacy is mainly political decedents in NYC who now are known as NEOCONS; and under the Republicans have successfully promoted the ideology of permanent war using the sheep's clothing of imposing democracy by the sword.

The Arabs beliefs center on family, land and Islam--with the US supporting the destruction of the Palestinians in favor of Israeli policies, the US stands in direct opposition to Arabs as well as Shiites. Up until recent revolutionary events, American managed the situation through foreign aid bribes., but it now clear that this aid did not trickle down to the masses ,but enriched the oligarchies. So there is now unfolding a permanent revolution. This will run out of energy when the ruling structure is inverted and new leadership emerges from the lower classes.

There is no indication that the new status quo will be democratic, but more likely evolve into a military junta or as a theocratic state run by non-secular Islamists

Bodies of revolutionaries are starting to pile up--especially in Libya where there are estimates of over 1000 killed. Leftist groups headed by Cuban Castro are getting nervous raising the possibility of a NATO/US invasion of Libya.

Apparently Castro and his pals dispute the demise of Pax Americana--he may be right when the invasion and occupation of Yugoslavia is recalled. The US now occupies Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia just like the old Ottoman Turks.. And there is no oil to be found in those Balkan areas as there is in Libya. So there is even greater imperative for attack by NATO/US. With little imagination, Libya could turn into a replay of Iraq. It would start with sanctions and no-fly zones all in the name of democracy. No-fly zones are expensive to operate--who will pay?

President Obama had a bad week apart from the events in the Middle East. The US Navy failed to rescue four Americans who were killed by Somali pirates. A CIA agent went rouge in Pakistan and is in jail unable to be released despite his diplomatic immunity. Price of oil is bouncing around a 100 dollars a barrel; gasoline is over 3 dollars a gallon; he stock market lost over 200 points in three days ; public trade unions in the Midwest are causing work stoppages with Democratic state legislatures in hiding.

With all this chaos Obama can only take steps not to enforce the law preventing gay marriages. And the prospects for a balanced national budget go a glimmering. Colonel Robert E Bartos USA Ret


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