Wednesday, July 28, 2010

To Lose a Spy

About a week ago the US lost an Iranian spy named Shahram Amin...

About two weeks ago my blog was titled to "To Catch a Spy.. It focused on the fact that the FBI just snagged 10 Russian spies and swapped them for for four Western/NATO spies... So then let us consider this weeks blog as a sequel.--"To Lose a Spy"

From the outset it should be made clear that the facts of the case are all suspect. This means those self-serving fulminations emanating from both CIA and Iranian intelligence are twisted to present the organizations in the best possible light.. My guess is that CIA still is uncertain of what went haywire.

The relative facts are that the Iranians have their man home and the US operatives have piles of reports from him , collected over several years , that are suspect.. You must wonder--Was he bait to be reeled in a the rght moment after CIA fish bite or did the man have a crises of conscience; and longed to return to mama and kids under Persian skies. Did he miss the home cooking that much ? Or did he crack because his family was threatened ?

His CIA handlers offered him 5 milliion bucks to remain in the worlds greatest democracy. With that largesse the Persian could have lived as well as any ayatolla back home. And boought a variety of tender company to stem any loneliness; also to live as Omar Khayyam if he chose,. It is back to rice and greasy mutton and time in a stuffy flat in Terhan now for the some-time defector. This Persian apparently did not live by bread alone. Allah over 5 million was quite a choice.

Despite stiff upper lip nonsense from CIA, the episode is a net loss fror the US. It has been reported that a new National Estimate is being worked to correct the findings that Iran was years away from developing a nuclear weapon. Much of the disinformation reportedly came from this source.

The fact the US has a strong military presence on the Iranian borders of Iraq, Afghanistan and a naval fleet with nuclear strike aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, the US appears overwrought from the threat from Iran. Israeli propagandists have created this frenzy much as they did on the run up to war in Iraq.

You can assume that there are layers of National Technical Means of intelligence collection thick in and around Iran. Yet the human intelligence collection appears thin. Otherwise why would the US exfilitrate a floozie spy such as Amin. Apparently he was used by CIA for several years inside Iran before he was brought to the US. My guess is that he was donated to the US by Israeli or Saudi intelligence . Bpth countries have acess to Iran far beyond the US. Like walk-in spies, donated spies are always less reliable and more suspect

The Iranian intelligence will now have a clear picture of US debriefing procedures, main CIA players on Iran and the normally classified essential elements of information needed by the US. Even a former chagrined CIA Director General Michael Hayden,served under GWB, came out yesterday saying the US might more likely strike Iran. Or he he just another US military leader following the Israeli Lobby marching orders ?

Some believe espionage is a board game like chess. There are moves and countermoves you can devise if you wish to pursue the analogy. I pass on the comparison except in one instance, If you lose in chess, you can blame only yourself--you have been out smarted by a more skilled adversary Colonel Robert E Bartos USA Ret


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